Is HS2 Really Socially Sustainable?

One of the main points that proponents of HS2 made before its construction was that the new high speed train would help stimulate and increase employment of citizens in smaller cities, especially in Northern England. The HS2 was seen to be a transformative project that would promote social sustainability in England by allowing for more people to commute from smaller, more isolated cities to bigger financial hubs and increase the economic output of the UK. Current economic growth and improved technological advancements have already increased demands for travel, however, assessing how much benefit HS2 will actually deliver to the UK as a whole must be thoroughly analyzed, because current predictions may actually be misleading the public.

Firstly, there has been supplementary research conducted by Dr. Richard Wellings that is highlighting a growing skepticism around the overall financial benefit of HS2 for Northern England.  Dr. Wellings studied the relationship between high-speed rail and economic performance by analysing the UK’s first high speed rail, HS1, which goes from London to Kent (1). From 2010-2013, it was found that East Kent’s employment rate fell 5 percentage points more post introduction of HS1, which was significantly more than the 1.8 percent fall of overall national employment (1). HS1’s failure to bring about any sort of economic transformation to East Kent is an indication that new high speed rail project may not bring any “financial stability” to Northern England either. Another problem that occured with HS1 that is argued will similarly effect HS2 was that a portion of the smaller cities along the rail had citizens that were under qualified to take on the new high-ranking jobs in bigger cities, and many of the Northern cities along the HS1 line have similar socio-economic and educational backgrounds as those along the HS1 line. As a result, many of the people that have access to the new HS2 line will be unable to take advantage of the extra employment opportunities because of their lack of adequate skills for new employment opportunities.

Finally, assessing the possible negative impacts of job shifting needs to be addressed when thinking about HS2, especially because growing evidence has theorized that certain areas of the UK will actually suffer from higher rates of unemployment as a result of the new high speed train. In a recent report done by Greengauge Consultancy, it was concluded that job shifting to the Midlands and the North of England because of the delivery of HS2 would actually disproportionately disrupt the Welsh economy. Greengauge deduced that by 2040, Wales would have  21,000 less jobs, 0.04% lower annual growth, and average lower incomes of £600 a year (2).

In the end, assessing the overall social sustainability of HS2, comprising of whether or not Northerners will actually economically benefit from new high speed rail and assessing the higher risks of unemployment in Wales, are crucial elements in order to avoid investing excessive funds into a project that may actually harm the UK economy more than help it grow.

REFERENCES:

(1)  Hansard.parliament.uk. (2018). Economic Case for HS2 (Economic Affairs Committee Report) - Hansard Online. [online] Available at: https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2015-09-16/debates/15091643000317/EconomicCaseForHS2(EconomicAffairsCommitteeReport) [Accessed 4 May 2018].

(2) Kelsey, C. (2018). Cardiff business group calls for high speed rail rethink. [online] walesonline. Available at: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/cardiff-business-group-calls-high-2037102 [Accessed 4 May 2018].